U.S. advertising spending is now expected to grow 12.3% in 2026, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau, but the more interesting shift is where marketers say the pressure is coming from: AI is changing how consumers discover and evaluate brands.
IAB raised its full-year forecast from the 9.5% growth it projected in January after a stronger first half and major cyclical events including the Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup. The updated forecast is based on input from more than 200 brand and agency media-investment decision makers.
In its September outlook update, IAB said adapting to changing consumer behavior—including AI-driven search—is now the top media-investment challenge, cited by 44% of buyers.
Visibility is becoming part of media strategy
For years, digital media planning was organized around platforms: search, social, display, video and commerce. AI discovery complicates that model because a consumer can ask a model for a recommendation without ever seeing the familiar list of blue links, sponsored placements or branded social posts that marketers know how to buy.
That does not make conventional advertising irrelevant. It increases the importance of everything surrounding the ad: brand recognition, trusted third-party voices, structured information, product reputation and the likelihood that an AI system can confidently explain why a brand belongs in the consideration set.
IAB’s data reflects that shift. Creator and influencer partnerships are receiving increased focus from 54% of respondents, followed by demographic or cohort-based advertising at 53%, publishers with first-party data at 48% and contextual advertising at 45%.
Those categories have something in common: they help brands establish identity, context and trust in environments where audience discovery is becoming more fragmented.
Brand equity matters more when consumers are willing to switch
The update also points to a less loyal consumer. Shoppers remain selective, are trading across brands and retailers, and are more willing to consider lower-priced or store brands. That creates an acquisition opportunity, but it also raises the cost of being forgettable.
In an AI-mediated buying journey, brand equity can influence whether a consumer asks about a company by name, whether publishers and creators mention it, whether reviews and product data reinforce the same story, and ultimately whether an AI platform includes the brand in an answer.
This is where advertising and generative-engine optimization begin to overlap. One is not replacing the other. Paid media can create awareness and demand; strong brand signals, content and data can make that demand easier for AI systems to recognize and reproduce.
The media plan is getting a new layer
The industry’s next challenge is measurement. Marketers already struggle to connect exposure across closed platforms to actual incremental revenue. AI discovery adds another layer because influence may happen inside an answer that has no conventional click attached to it.
That makes the IAB forecast notable beyond the 12.3% headline. Advertisers are still spending more. But the definition of visibility is expanding.
The media strategy of the next few years will not only ask where an ad ran. It will ask whether the brand remains legible and credible everywhere a customer—or an AI agent—goes looking for an answer.