Preview

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its October Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Nov. 6, giving employers a new reference point for staffing plans. Its published calendar confirms the time. This is a preview, not a report of October results.

The baseline is September, not October

In its September release, issued Oct. 2, BLS reported a 29,000 increase in nonfarm payroll employment and a 4.2% unemployment rate. The agency described both as little changed. Those are September estimates, not an early reading of October.

CNBC’s Nov. 5 preview reported a Dow Jones consensus forecast for 59,000 additional payroll jobs and an unchanged 4.2% unemployment rate. Those figures describe expectations, not findings already published by BLS.

The BLS November calendar also schedules October consumer-price and real-earnings releases for Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Those are separate scheduled publications, not additional findings that will appear in Friday’s employment report.

Jobs and people answer different questions

BLS’s technical note distinguishes payroll records from a household survey. Payroll data count nonfarm jobs, with hours and earnings reported for private-sector employees. Household data cover employment, unemployment and labor-force status. A worker on two payrolls can count twice in the employer measure but only once in household employment.

For workforce planners, payroll totals are not a count of unique applicants available for a particular vacancy or local market.

Read revisions beside the new month

BLS routinely revises the previous two monthly payroll estimates as additional responses arrive and seasonal adjustments are recalculated. The next release therefore can change the recent comparison as well as introduce a new month.

Comparisons should identify the version of an earlier estimate being used. Mixing preliminary and revised figures can obscure the actual baseline.

CNBC interviewed Nicole Bachaud, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter, who described limited movement between jobs and employers not adding positions. She said that low turnover makes finding work difficult for people without a job, while people who are already employed face a different situation. She also questioned whether wage growth offers a useful signal. Her remarks were an assessment, not October results.

Her assessment offers context for recruitment discussions, not a forecast of any particular company’s candidate supply or labor costs. For operating leaders, Friday’s release is a prompt to revisit staffing assumptions with the relevant measures. It does not replace evidence from the organization’s own vacancies, applicants and retention.