The National Retail Federation forecast on Oct. 15, 2026, that U.S. retail sales during November and December will rise 4.2% from a year earlier. For retailers setting holiday plans, the projection describes growth in dollars spent, not an equivalent increase in products sold.
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A forecast for a defined retail market
NRF’s announcement projects $1.013 trillion in spending for the two-month period. The trade group puts last year’s comparable sales at $972 billion, an increase of 3.1% over 2024.
These are different kinds of figures: the 2026 number is an expectation, while the 2025 comparison describes the prior season. The forecast is not a report of completed holiday purchases.
Nominal growth is not a volume measure
In its holiday methodology explanation, NRF says its forecast uses nominal sales, without adjusting for inflation. It cautions that calculating inflation-adjusted growth is more complicated than simply subtracting one general inflation rate, because price changes differ by product.
That distinction matters when translating a national forecast into an inventory decision. More dollars at the checkout can reflect prices and the mix of purchases as well as the number of items bought. The headline percentage alone does not resolve those differences.
What the projection can and cannot tell retailers
The forecast is a broad seasonal reference point, not a sales target for every category or merchant. A business evaluating its own holiday performance would need comparable periods and a clear distinction between revenue, unit sales and pricing.
It would also need to separate expectations from actual trading as the season unfolds. A projected industry increase does not guarantee an individual retailer will grow, or establish which promotion will attract customers.
The useful reading of NRF’s announcement is therefore specific: the organization expects higher nominal retail spending during November and December. It has not established how much of any eventual increase will represent additional units purchased.