U.S. holiday e-commerce sales could reach nearly $319 billion this season, according to Deloitte, as consumers keep spending but become more deliberate about where their money goes.
Deloitte expects online sales during the November 2026 through January 2027 period to rise between 7.5% and 8.4%, reaching roughly $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion. Overall holiday retail sales are forecast to rise 4% to 4.8%, to between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion.
The numbers, reported Thursday by Reuters, suggest a holiday season that is growing without becoming carefree. Rising disposable income should support spending, but consumers remain value-conscious after years of pressure from household costs.
The bigger story is brand switching
Deloitte says shoppers across income levels are looking for deals, comparing retailers and showing a greater willingness to change brands in order to stretch their budgets.
That behavior matters more than the top-line growth rate for brands. A consumer who plans to spend during the holidays but is less attached to a specific label creates both risk and opportunity: incumbent brands have to defend loyalty, while challengers have a better chance to win consideration.
For retailers, that makes pricing, bundles, promotions, inventory visibility and the quality of the digital shopping experience especially important. It also puts more pressure on paid media and CRM teams to distinguish between discount-driven revenue and genuinely incremental customer acquisition.
Online continues to outpace total retail
E-commerce is again expected to grow faster than holiday retail overall. Online holiday sales rose an estimated 7.5% to about $294 billion in the comparable period a year earlier. Deloitte’s new forecast suggests that digital shopping is still taking a larger share of seasonal spending even as consumers return to stores for discovery, convenience and experience.
That means holiday planning is increasingly omnichannel in practice. A shopper may encounter a product through social media, compare it in AI search, visit a store, wait for a promotion and ultimately complete the purchase online. The retailer that wins may not be the one that owned the first interaction.
For brands, the takeaway is less about chasing one more holiday sales record and more about competing for a consumer who is actively willing to reconsider familiar choices.
If Deloitte’s forecast holds, holiday demand is there. Loyalty is simply less guaranteed.